• By 2028, 27,000 new commercial companies with a combined turnover of £10.8bn are expected to emerge from UK universities
• Some 400 accelerators and 300 incubation hubs are now operating within British universities 
• 100,000 new jobs to be created by 2029
• Central government provides £2.5bn cash for AI and quantum computing spin-offs

UK universities have a well-earned worldwide reputation for excellence in scientific research into a wide range of technologies and then spinning out their IP and discoveries into successful, scalable commercial companies of significant potential profitability and influence. 

However, as recently as 2023, the spin-out sector was dominated by the very wealthy ‘golden triangle’ of the universities of Oxford, Cambridge and University College London that, at the time and between them, secured 75% of the UK’s spin-out investments. 

Now, though, that regional imbalance is addressed in light of the UK government’s Independent Review of University Spin-out Companies that sought to position the country as a major global player in science and technology. 

Universities UK (UUK), a body representing 142 universities and seats of higher learning in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, is an influential advocate on behalf of British academia. The organisation has been emphasising the importance of the growing wave of entrepreneurial activity within UK universities and colleges, and forecasts that over the course of the next three years (2026-28), around 27,000 new spin-out commercial companies will emerge from their labs and research departments. 

Underlining the potential of the new companies, UUK estimates that, managed correctly, they should generate a combined turnover of at least £10.8bn per annum.

Data taken from the UUK report, which is based on Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data, indicates that, by the 2028-29 academic year, university student and staff startups will provide jobs for some 100,000 people and the new companies will attract £2.6bn in external investment. The emergence of spin-outs is being further fuelled by the 400 accelerators and 300 incubation hubs that are now operating within UK universities. 

These are very positive attributes, but the horizon is not entirely clear and there are some clouds obscuring the sun. 

For example, the UK House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee has warned that Britain risks becoming “an incubator economy for other nations”, where spin-outs regarded as potential long-term money-makers will quickly be identified and acquired by international companies in the US, China and elsewhere to the detriment of the UK’s local, regional and national economies. Thus, the pressure is on to maximise the potential for the emergence of spin-out startups from the UK’s university ecosystem, with the UUK stressing that support, collaboration and investment must be nurtured and exploited to ensure long-term commercial success.

Until fairly recently, the founders of university spin-outs found it hard to scale their activities beyond their home markets because of difficulties encountered in raising additional capital investment from cautious British banks, financial institutions and investors. This so-called “scale-up gap” has caused many a prospective spin-out, perforce, to seek funding from overseas, in general, and the US, in particular. That necessity has all too frequently resulted in British technological innovation being bought out by international competitors or listed via an initial public offering (IPO) process on stock exchanges other than London.

The government is well aware of the ‘drifting abroad’ phenomenon and in mid-March this year the current Chancellor of the Exchequer (finance minister) Rachel Reeves announced that the AI and quantum technology sectors would get a cash injection of £2.5bn to help staunch the flow and to ensure that companies in those critical tech sectors can scale and succeed in a country that Reeves claims is on course to “achieve the fastest AI adoption in the G7”. This chimes with the government’s declared intent to focus on sovereign AI and quantum computing and protect the national interest in sectors that it calculates will be worth £212bn within “a few years”. 

Beauhurst Insights, a London, UK-headquartered research house, has published a report on the university spin-out sector. It notes that some 20% of all UK startup companies (of any type) have a very brief lifespan of just 12 months – that’s less than one of Britain’s favourite birds, the robin – while just 50% remain operative after five years. University spin-out survival rates are better but can nonetheless suffer the same negative experiences that can bedevil any new UK company. 

The Beauhurst Insights team adds that UK spin-outs that raise equity investment are much more likely to continue in business for longer, with a 95% chance of staying the course to their fifth anniversary and beyond. What’s more, equity-backed spin-outs have over an 81% probability of surviving for at least a decade, while 65% will last 14 years and more.

In contrast, for non-equity-backed spin-outs the probability of survival to 10 years is below 50% and only 32% will reach the statistically significant 14-year mark.

Unsurprisingly, the report also shows that equity-funded spin-outs generally have strong go-to-market market propositions and are consistently more likely to achieve a successful market exit than their non-funded counterparts. Thus, by the 14-year point, such spin-outs are twice as likely to have exited either via profitable acquisition or initial public floatation as compared to their non-funded peers. 

Over the past few years there has been a noticeable and significant shift towards greater transparency in the university spin-out ecosystem and considerably improved openness where spin-out models and the terms of deals and agreements are concerned. This improved visibility helps universities, funders and investors to benchmark spin-outs more effectively and make better informed decisions. Indeed, as Beauhurst Insights reports, the expectation is that during the course of this year, the uptake of the concepts and advice contained in the University Spin-Out Investment Terms Guide (USIT) will also increasingly help to streamline spin-out investment processes and beef up funding timelines. 

In the past, UK universities tended to take rather high-equity stakes in their spin-outs, at around the 22% level. Critics long complained such a percentage was excessive to the point it actually worked to disincentivise would-be startup founders and restrict the growth of the sector. 

However, it seems the lesson has been well learnt and in recent years the level of equity stakeholding has now fallen back to an average of 16%, which has accelerated sectoral improvement, as it contributes noticeably to sustainable growth by ensuring founders retain meaningful ownership through multiple funding rounds. 

Then, of course, there are various government initiatives, be they financial, legislative or regulatory: More on that in a later article.

– Martyn Warwick, Editor in Chief, TelecomTV