• LEO satellite lifespans range from three to 10 years, affecting deployment and replacement economics
• Satellite operators face trade-offs between capex, replacement frequency and maintaining 3GPP standards compliance
• SpaceX’s US$17bn spectrum deal with EchoStar highlights its D2D ambitions
• Musk outlines plans for direct connectivity to future smartphones

On Monday, SpaceX announced that it had entered into a purchase agreement with EchoStar for 50 MHz of S-band spectrum in the US as well as global mobile satellite service (MSS) spectrum licences. The news came as interest grows in providing direct-to-device (D2D) services from low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Many telcos have already partnered with – or invested in – satellite service providers, including AST SpaceMobile, Lynk Global and other competitors to Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Starlink.

The reported US$17bn is significant on several levels: It confirms the importance of this sector as a serious business proposition; it raises major questions around future spectrum licensing and policy; and it demonstrates that there will likely be only one winner in this space – the player willing to invest bigger and faster to outpace rivals.

Yes, these non-terrestrial network (NTN) operators still need terrestrial partners (mobile operators) to support marketing, customer acquisition and service delivery goals. For now, at least. But telcos should not rely on long-term partnerships.

Appearing via video call at the All-In Summit event on Wednesday, Musk was asked: “Could you buy some carriers to have more spectrum? Maybe you could buy Verizon?” He responded, with perhaps more than an element of sincerity: “Not out of the question. I suppose that may happen.” Never underestimate Elon Musk and his ambitions.

For now, however, he explained: “We’re not going to put the other carriers out of business. They’re still going to be around because they own a lot of spectrum.”

There is still substantial work required before Starlink can monetise this spectrum. Musk again: “This is kind of a long-term thing. It will allow SpaceX to deliver high-bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones, but there are hardware changes that need to happen in the phone. Since these frequencies are not supported in current phones, the chipset has to be modified and that probably is a two-year timeframe. So the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years. And then we also need to build the satellites that are going to communicate on those frequencies. But the net effect is that you should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.”

Economics of satellite lifecycles

The economics of deploying and refreshing LEO satellites for D2D services are complex compared with terrestrial rollouts. In contrast to mobile infrastructure, where cell towers and core networks may remain in service for a decade or more and benefit from incremental software and hardware updates, LEO constellations operate under tighter lifecycle and physical constraints. Satellite lifespans vary significantly across operators, from three to 10 years, raising questions about replacement logistics, cost amortisation and the feasibility of long-term 3GPP standards compliance.

AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird constellation targets the higher end of the lifespan range, with satellites engineered for seven to 10 years of service. The planned 45 to 60-satellite constellation is capital-intensive, but the longer lifespan reduces replacement frequency and software-defined payloads should enable in-orbit upgrades to newer 3GPP releases.

Lynk Global’s model calls for a high turnover of around 5,000 nano-satellites with projected lifespans of just three to five years. The short lifecycle is offset by relatively low production costs and a replenishment strategy aligned with regular launch schedules. Compatibility with legacy and future mobile generations is maintained via over-the-air waveform and protocol updates.

SpaceX’s Starlink is optimised for rapid refresh, with a constellation rising from 8,000 operational satellites to a planned 40,000. Its second-generation Starlink V2 satellites will integrate 4G base stations for D2D coverage and are designed for a five-year operational window. Without an obvious protocol upgrade path, the model depends on an extremely high launch cadence and cost efficiencies derived from vertical integration across manufacturing and launch.

In contrast, mobile operators typically upgrade their macro cell infrastructure in seven to 10-year cycles, with radio access network (RAN) equipment capable of supporting multi-generation software-defined upgrades. For the LEO operators, they can adopt a software-defined payload model to ease upgrade pains, or perform the equivalent of a full-site overhaul by de-orbiting and replacing satellites with alarming regularity. Success will come down to achieving the best marginal cost per megabit, while managing customer expectations around service quality.

Either that, or the company with the deepest pockets will win by default.

- Guy Daniels, Director of Content, TelecomTV