Strategy Analytics: Fully Autonomous Vehicle Volumes to Emerge from 2025

Your Next Car May Not be Autonomous - But Will be More Automated

Boston, MA – December 01, 2015 – Despite the considerable market hype, any volume market for fully autonomous vehicles is considered by Strategy Analytics unlikely to emerge before 2025. The Strategy Analytics Autonomous Vehicles Service (AVS) report, “Autonomous Vehicle Market Scenarios,” presents three different demand scenarios out to the year 2050, split by the level of automation offered. It also details the consequent RADAR, LIDAR and cameras demand from all types of light vehicle.

The standard scenario assumes that conventional automakers remain in charge of an evolutionary roll-out of fully-autonomous vehicles, with them remaining a minority of light vehicle production even out until 2050.

A more aggressive accelerated scenario sees more revolution than evolution, with small city cars using technologies developed by the likes of Google driving the market. The third and final scenario examines a slower-roll out and more use of partially-autonomous technology.

“This aggressive scenario also includes assumptions that long-term vehicle demand will decline as these city-based autonomous vehicles accelerate changing vehicle ownership patterns – a potential real threat to conventional automakers”, commented Ian Riches, Director – Global Automotive Practice.

“Regardless of the pace of fully-autonomous developments, the roll-out of ever more automated vehicles is good news for sensor vendors”, noted Industry Analyst Angelos Lakrintis. “2030 could see almost 250 million cameras fitted to all types of light vehicle. Your next car may not be fully autonomous, but it will almost certainly be more automated”, he added.