• Juniper Research is the latest research firm to predict what operator returns could be from network APIs
• It also highlights the Know Your Customer API as a key opportunity
• Meanwhile, telcos have been deploying APIs within markets, setting up dedicated units, and throwing their weight behind Open Gateway and Aduna

In 2024, it seemed that barely a day passed without the publication of a new market forecast for network application programming interfaces (APIs), with considerable variations in predictions of their future value for telecoms operators.

For instance, we had the famous report from McKinsey & Co in February 2024, estimating that network APIs could “unlock around $100bn to $300bn in connectivity- and edge-computing-related revenue for operators, while generating an additional $10bn to $30bn from APIs themselves” over the next five to seven years. This lofty prediction certainly caused some eyebrows to be raised.

STL Partners then waded in with a forecast in May 2024 that the network API market will grow from a valuation of $4bn at the end of 2023 to $34bn in 2030, while a less optimistic IDC estimated that worldwide revenue for telecoms and network APIs will reach $6.7bn in 2028. 

In November, management consultancy Arthur D Little said the network API market is “expected to grow by a CAGR [compound annual growth rate] of 47% between 2023 and 2030”, from about US $1bn to $13.5bn, and “communication APIs overall (including SMS, video and voice) are expected to grow at an CAGR of 18%”, to a total value of some $32bn by 2030.

Juniper Research is the latest research firm to throw its hat into the ring, providing a relatively modest estimate of what operators could expect from their network API efforts. It says operator revenues from network APIs globally “will exceed $8bn by 2030. This is a substantial increase from the $284m operators are forecasted to generate in 2025.”

Moreover, Juniper has suggested that identity assurance will be the next major opportunity for telcos, and urges them to launch Know Your Customer (KYC) network APIs to support enterprises in this field. KYC APIs verify users against a range of operator data, including subscriber information, the SIM and the device being used.

Alex Webb, senior research analyst at Juniper Research, said KYC APIs “will have the greatest impact in market verticals such as e‑commerce and gambling, where regulations are increasingly requiring more stringent solutions for age verification. Operators must ensure they provide reliable information on a user’s identity to capitalise on this opportunity, otherwise they risk faltering growth in the early stage of KYC APIs.”

Webb added that operators “must leverage the advanced capabilities of the KYC API to charge a higher fee per API call, thus pushing greater revenue growth”. 

KYC APIs are certainly available to operators, forming part of the Spring25 meta-release from Camara, the Linux Foundation’s open-source network API project that also underpins the GSMA-led Open Gateway initiative. 

API days 

The initial flurry of excitement sparked by the launch of Open Gateway in early 2023 has calmed down somewhat, but telcos have maintained their position, at least publicly, that network APIs remain an important opportunity to generate revenue that is accretive to their more traditional offerings. There is certainly a fair amount of activity going on in this field. 

Indeed, the GSMA says 76 mobile operator groups representing 288 networks and almost 80% of mobile connections worldwide have joined the Open Gateway initiative to date, and many of them have already collaborated on the launch of network APIs within markets, as this Open Gateway API tracker shows.

Notably, the GSMA is also working closely with the TM Forum to bring greater alignment between the latter’s open APIs and network APIs developed within Camara.

In addition, some telcos have established dedicated business units to drive go-to-market opportunities for their network API portfolios. For instance, Deutsche Telekom (DT) set up Magenta API Capability Exposure (MACE) in early 2024, while Orange launched LiveNet at this year’s Mobile World Congress event.

Both DT and Orange are also strong proponents of Aduna, the telco API joint venture between Ericsson and a dozen telcos, which was first announced in September 2024 and recently established as a fully formed and capitalised joint venture company that will be holding its inaugural two-day Global Summit in Texas, US this September.

Ericsson owns 50%, while the other half is owned by AT&T, Bharti Airtel, DT, KDDI, Orange, Reliance Jio, Singtel, Telefónica, Telstra, T-Mobile US, Verizon and Vodafone, though the size of the equity shares of each operator hasn’t been shared. 

Peter Arbitter, who formerly headed up MACE at DT, has also taken on the role of chief commercial officer (CCO) at Aduna, which has been building up a strong roster of partners in recent months and is due to hold its inaugural two-day Global Summit event in Texas, US this September.

Overall, it’s fair to say that there is considerable momentum in the field of network or telco APIs. It remains to be seen which of the analyst firms, if any, will be right on the money in terms of how big this market will prove to be for telcos.

- Anne Morris, Contributing Editor, TelecomTV