Trump administration preps unified and centralised US quantum strategy

• A federal shot in the arm to invigorate the sector and counter Chinese quantum expansionism
• Claims it will usher in the ‘next frontier of quantum innovation’ 
• The initiative will replace several agencies with a centralised management and investment system
• A deadline of 2027 to make massive change will be hard to meet but is necessary

The Trump administration is set to beef up the US’s extant National Quantum Strategy of 2018 by issuing an extremely wide-ranging executive order designed to engender a “cohesive national effort” in creating a unified and centralised strategy for the future of US quantum technologies and ecosystems. 

A draft copy of the order, Ushering In The Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation, has been obtained by Nextgov/FCW, a site that reports on US federal government technology strategy. The draft celebrates the country’s pioneering past and notion of “manifest destiny” – invoking the “frontier spirit” that saw the nascent nation double its size when the Louisiana Purchase of 1803 spurred the massive 19th century westward expansion that followed – whilst looking to a future in which the US can control the approaching quantum era. The plan will further focus on accelerating the development of a “US national quantum computer”.

Quantum technology and its regulation is currently managed and overseen by a mish-mash of miscellaneous agencies that seldom, if ever, work in concert. This piecemeal approach will be replaced by a centralised federal investment, infrastructure, security and commercialisation bureaucracy that will “set the vision” to ensure the US stays in the vanguard of the development and innovation of quantum technologies. 

According to the draft document, the US Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) will lead the national project and will work with the massive Departments of Energy, Defence and Commerce “to update the National Quantum Strategy” by “taking actions to lower commercial barriers, improve access to foreign markets, partnering with allied nations, scaling a quantum-ready infrastructure, strengthening supply chains and continuing fundamental scientific research.” 

These key focus areas will also expand quantum sensing and quantum networking. Where commercialisation and security of the technology and networks is concerned, further initiatives will lower barriers for US domestic quantum computing companies, strengthen supply chains and establish security protocols. 

The strong international emphasis of the new strategy will, as an immediate priority, focus on widening and deepening partnerships with allied countries. That approach will directly complement efforts by the US Congress to reboot (and re-finance) the National Quantum Initiative (NQI). The executive order, which is still being drafted, says speed is of the essence in setting a national quantum computing strategy and will impose a 180-day timeline “for significant milestones” to be identified and analysed.

Speed of the essence but will require willing co-operation of many agencies

The final executive order is still being drafted and no deadline has been set, but it is evident that the administration is eager to publish it as soon as possible, perhaps later this month or early in March. 

What seems certain is that work to update the National Quantum Strategy will begin within 180 days of the signing of the order, with the director of OSTP and the Departments of Commerce, Energy and Defence liaising with the directors of national intelligence and the National Science Foundation. They will also take and apply feedback from the National Science and Technology Council Subcommittees on Quantum Information Science and the Economic and Security Implications of Quantum Science.

Within 30 days of the National Quantum Strategy being updated, involved agencies and government departments must report to the OSTP director and the director of the Office of Management and Budget on the steps they intend to take to implement its objectives. Meanwhile, the OSTP, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Departments of Commerce, Energy and military representatives from the Pentagon will coordinate their approaches to “ensure expertise in manufacturing infrastructure and other capabilities” and seek innovations “to inform national security, commercial and government technological applications.”

Another section of the executive order will mandate the design and development of “a quantum computer for scientific applications and discovery” – or QCSAD for short. (Yes, we get to enjoy yet more of the alphabet soup that characterises government bureaucracies the world over and are found in their most advanced, inventive and mystifying profusion in America.)

Under the QCSAD directive, the Department of Energy will “engage private sector partners to expedite its delivery to the scientific community”. The Department of Commerce will come up with a scheme to continue investments into commercial quantum companies in a bid to “de-risk” their technologies – and good luck with that!

The executive order will usher in a new long-term US government quantum strategy and the heads of the Departments of Energy and Commerce, together with their counterparts at the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA (the National Aeronautical and Space Administration), will be required, quickly, to submit individual five-year roadmaps of plans to expand quantum sensing and networking, with application areas of focus specific to the four individual agencies.

The concluding sections of the draft order focus on the development and support of a strong and innovative domestic US quantum sector and on greatly strengthening quantum technology co-operation with friendly counties. That domestic sector is already strong and gaining scale, with companies such as IonQ positioning themselves as key players – see IonQ creates first-of-its-kind quantum firm with $1.8bn acquisition.

Whatever the provisions of the final draft of the sweeping new executive order may be, fundamental change is coming to the quantum technology industry in the US. The transition is likely to be difficult and expensive in terms of time, resources and money (not that there’s much mention of budgets in the current draft), not least because setting up a massive new bureaucratic entity of such strategic importance that will oversee the alignment of manufacturing, research and international engagement to make quantum a cornerstone of US economic and national security strategy within two years is a tight schedule and a big ask.

It is also necessary, wise, timely and to be applauded, especially given China’s intense state-aided or state-funded focus on becoming world leader in quantum technology. However, imposing cultural change on organisations in democratic western countries is very difficult and it will take intense management focus and the provision of guaranteed channels of real and meaningful communication between previously autonomous government agencies that, hitherto and historically, have been and still are infamous for keeping their cards close to their chests and only revealing them under intense pressure, such as during national and international crises. The hope is that minds will focus on making a success of the many changes and the 2027 deadline will be hit, but time is pressing. 

The current president of the US likes to present himself as one of the world’s greatest dealmakers, but he has a way to go to match Thomas Jefferson. The 1803 Louisiana Purchase was an astonishing acquisition brokered by Jefferson who, as the third president of the US, authorised the payment to the French First Republic (then led by the emperor Napoleon Bonaparte) of $15m to buy 828,000 square-miles of Louisiana Territory land west of the Mississippi River’s drainage basin. He effectively doubled the country’s size, enabled huge westward expansion and the establishment of new trade routes that made the country rich. Now, that really was a big deal.

 – Martyn Warwick, Editor in Chief, TelecomTV