• MVNO connections are set to jump by more than 50% from 2026 to 2031.
• MVNOs will represent 30% of the mobile market within five years.
• App-based providers from fintech and other sectors are expected to quickly take share from more-traditional providers.
• Total MVNO service revenue to nearly double over the forecast period.
• The market trend raises probing questions for network operators.

London, 6 August 2026: The mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) sector in the UK is as vibrant as it’s ever been. Established providers continue to enjoy rapid growth as their low-cost offers resonate with cost-conscious customers. At the same time, a new breed of digital competitors is spurring new customer journeys that threaten to upend the traditional telecom landscape.

New research from leading technology data and insights firm FDM CCS Insight shows that this growth is likely to continue. The report, which is available now, analyses all angles of the burgeoning UK MVNO sector. It assesses the prospects for new entrants amid soaring hype about new retail brands getting into mobile, reviews the strategy and performance of existing MVNOs, charts recent pricing trends and considers a range of future scenarios.

According to FDM CCS Insight, the number of connections to MVNOs — excluding operator sub-brands like giffgaff and Voxi — will grow 51% from the start of this year to the end of 2031. At that point, they’ll represent more than 30% of the overall mobile market excluding machine-to-machine connections, up from about 23% today.

The strong growth in connections will help total UK MVNO service revenue almost double from just under £2.4 billion in 2025 to over £4.5 billion in 2031. This is despite average revenue per user (ARPU) among MVNOs remaining far adrift of their network operator partners.

The arrival of new brands into the mobile market, particularly from fintech companies, is one of the industry’s hottest trends. Many are taking a new approach, offering connectivity directly through their existing customer apps using eSIM, enabled by companies such as Gigs and 1Global. Our forecast is for solid growth from this band of providers, reaching over 3 million customers or an 11% share of the UK MVNO market, in 2031.

Kester Mann, director of consumer and connectivity at FDM CCS Insight, commented that the rise of MVNOs is bittersweet for network operators. “On the one hand, virtual providers offer a path to higher wholesale revenue as telcos connect new customers to their networks”, he said, “but it also means greater retail competition from low-cost providers that threatens to stymie elusive industry efforts to grow”. Operators’ sub-brands will slightly check the rise of MVNOs but, in total, the main UK brands — O2, EE, Three and Vodafone — will endure years of customer losses.

Mann also warned that MVNOs’ momentum can’t last forever. He remarked that “their market share gains will slow toward the end of this decade and into the 2030s, influenced by the return of a stricter and more defensive strategy from mobile operators in the next round of contract renegotiations”. He added, “although under pressure from MVNOs, operators still hold the network access keys for any provider wishing to offer a mobile service, giving them an important level of control that should place a ceiling on their long-term growth potential”.

One of FDM CCS Insight’s recommendations is that some existing MVNOs need to do more than simply undercut the rest of the field on price. To better stand out, the firm suggests MVNOs should offer a broader set of products, such as home broadband, backed by strong and consistent branding and close integration with an effective loyalty programme.