Consolidated expansion of new form factors predicted in the second half of 2016 and beyond, says IDC

LONDON, October 3, 2016 — According to the latest IDC forecast, detachables, convertibles, and ultraslim notebooks will continue their expansion and are expected to account for approximately 40% of the total PC and tablet market in Western Europe by 2020. IDC projects continued double-digit YoY growth in 2016 across all three form factors, with ultraslims expected to grow 14.2%, convertibles 20.7%, and detachables to near double with over 80% growth in 2016 YoY. This only partly offsets the decline of the more traditional form factors, such as traditional notebooks, traditional desktops, or slate tablets, as the overall market performance will remain negative. IDC forecasts a 3.7% decrease of PC and tablet shipment in the second half of 2016 (compared with 2015H2). Overall the market is expected to contract 6% YoY in 2016.

Recent announcements at IFA, with some of the most established brands presenting their new ultrabooks, convertibles, and detachables, confirm the market evolution and increased adoption of thinner, lighter, and more versatile mobile form factors by consumers and businesses. IDC anticipates a commercial segment outperforming the PC and tablet market, with 3.7% growth in 2016H2 compared with 2015H2, and a 1.2% increase for total 2016 in Western Europe. The continuous expansion of detachables in the commercial segment and an uptake in notebook renewals are expected to be the main drivers.

"The second half of 2016 will mark yet another period of great detachable success in the enterprise space," said Daniel Goncalves, research analyst, IDC European Personal Computing. "The wave of available devices on the market continues to increase and is accompanied by interest among enterprises for the adoption of detachables, as the form factor perfectly fits their mobility strategies. The new generation of models addresses old concerns regarding security and computing power, which is generating a very positive response in the B2B market. Notebooks are also expected to perform positively in the commercial segment, driven by the uptake in ultraslim notebooks. Mobility is a requirement of growing importance in the business sector, particularly among SMBs."

Delving into the consumer segment, IDC expects PC and tablet shipments to decline 10.2% in 2016 in Western Europe. Traditional notebooks will continue to decline in 2016H2, while ultraslim and convertible shipments will continue to grow double-digit at 20.0% and 34.9% YoY respectively.

"Consumer preferences will continue to shift from traditional form factors to more portable and innovative devices. New products such as convertibles, ultraslims, and detachables are gaining ground. Vendors are increasingly developing thin, light, power-efficient, and high-performing notebooks and being a player in this market helps vendors to increase their competitiveness," said Andrea Minonne, research analyst, IDC EMEA Personal Computing.

High levels of interest in such devices will not offset the decline of the consumer PC market, which will continue throughout 2016, but they will contribute to a better performance in the overall market this year. In particular, the upcoming Christmas season will support shipments in the second half of 2016. New models will be launched in 2016H2, playing a key role in reinforcing interest and stimulating consumer purchases. On the other hand, many factors are creating uncertainties and are affecting consumer consumption. Although post-Brexit effects are still intangible, the consequent weakening of the pound and price increases applied by some PC vendors might discourage consumer IT spending in the U.K., which is expected to marginally impact the overall Western European results.

Detachables, ultraslims, and convertible notebooks will continue to experience interesting growth in Western Europe and will continue to progress throughout 2016. These are strategic products for vendors as they address business and consumer mobility needs well and bring a competitive edge and high profitability.

IDC's Quarterly PC and Tablet Tracker provides unmatched market coverage and forecasts for the entire device space, covering PCs and tablets, in more than 80 countries — providing fast, essential, and comprehensive market information across the entire personal computing device market.

For more information on IDC's EMEA Quarterly PC and Tablet Tracker or other IDC client computing research services, contact Vice President Karine Paoli on +44 (0) 20 8987 7218 or at [email protected].

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