Satellites, eSIMs and M&A shape key 2025 trends – GSMAi

• GSMA Intelligence analysts have shared their biggest moments of 2025
• Starlink’s spectrum deal, UK telco consolidation and greater eSIM support all have future implications
• 6G, AI and revenue growth set to influence key trends in 2026

Satellite comms expansion, e-SIM adoption and industry consolidation were some of the most important developments in the telecom sector in 2025, according to the analyst team at GSMA Intelligence (GSMAi), with 6G and the ongoing impact of AI set to take centre stage in 2026.

During a recent webinar hosted by Peter Jarich, head of GSMAi, the analyst panel discussed their standout developments in the market this year and shared their predictions for 2026.

Radhika Gupta, the GSMAi’s head of data acquisition, said 2025 had been the year “ice finally broke on consolidation” in the sector. She pointed to completion of the merger of Three UK and Vodafone UK, which took the number of operators in the UK market down to three after years of four players competing with one another, as evidence of this shift.

“This particular event is important because Europe historically had been very particular about not approving such mergers that shrink a market from four players to three players for competition reasons. Even in the UK, back in 2016, Three and O2 [now Virgin Media O2] attempted to merge, which was not approved by the European Commission on competition reasons only.”

Approval from European and UK regulators for the creation of VodafoneThree has “set a precedent” she added, whilst also causing knock-on developments due to conditions attached to the approval.

The UK's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) cleared the merger with three key conditions: Implementation of an £11bn joint network plan for eight years of upgrades; capped selected tariffs for three years to protect customers from price hikes; and pre-set wholesale prices for three years to ensure smaller providers, such as MVNOs, get fair access. “In this particular case, it was more [about] behavioural remedies, wherein the merged entity has legal binding obligations on the investment side,” Gupta added.

The deal also signalled a shift at the EC, which recognised that “some degree of consolidation is good and [it] launched a consultation to finally review the merger guidelines across the EU. If that goes ahead, it could actually pave the way for consolidation in many more European markets.”

Look to the skies

GSMAi’s head of research and consulting, Tim Hatt, said the convergence between satellite communications and terrestrial mobile providers has been one of the most interesting developments in 2025, citing the recent developments involving low-earth orbit (LEO) operator Starlink and its parent organisation, Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

Most notably, SpaceX recently acquired almost $20bn of satellite spectrum from debt-ridden operator EchoStar to enhance Starlink’s services, most notably its direct-to-device (D2D) offering. The move “showed Musk’s intent” but also could mark the direction for travel for future spectrum auctions and satellite connectivity in general, explained Hatt.

“While I don’t think we will see satellite providers overtaking terrestrial services, as some have speculated, it shows that direct-to-device is a formidable trend right now… operators representing almost 70% of [the global mobile] market share have at least one satellite partnership with companies like Starlink,” he added. 

Other satellite operators enabling D2D services include AST SpaceMobile, which is working closely with multiple operators including Vodafone Group, and Skylo, which is working with Orange and others. 

Breakthrough for eSIMs

Apple’s adoption of eSIMs was also highlighted as a significant development that will have longer-term ramifications for the industry.

Pablo Iacopino, head of commercial research at GSMAi, said the decision of Chinese operators to support eSIMs for the Apple iPhone Air could have significant global implications. “Obviously, China itself is a big market,” explained Iacopino. “But it is also about the impact it has on other [device] manufacturers. Many of the top OEMs, such as Xiaomi, Oppo, Huawei, are based in China. If these vendors see consumers in China reacting to eSIMs, they will start pushing them globally, which means introducing more eSIM devices to the market.

“This is important globally because it helps drive availability of the same technology at the low end of the market, for people who don’t purchase premium smartphones, and this will drive adoption of eSIMs globally,” noted the analyst. 

Looking ahead

Iacopino also shared his predictions for 2026, saying that as the number of eSIM devices grows and with more wholesale players operating, the industry will see at least five non-telco providers launch their own eSIM offering to support travellers. Examples of companies that have already adopted such a strategy include neobank Revolut and airlines in Latin America, but Iacopino said he expects competition to grow in this space, with other fintech companies likely to lead the charge.

AI will also continue to be a big theme in 2026, according to the panel of GSMAi experts.
Hatt predicts that 25% of telcos will have launched a sovereign AI service by the end of next year. “It is only a handful right now,” noted the analyst. “But there will be specific compliance requirements from governments that will create a unique opportunity for [telecom] operators.”

BT recently unveiled plans to launch a sovereign offering for its business and public sector customers, while in Canada, both Bell Canada and Telus have been investing in AI infrastructure and service development for a couple of years already. (You can keep up to date with telco sovereign service developments in this dedicated TelecomTV channel.)

“The revenue motivation is becoming clear and operators are uniquely placed to satisfy that requirement, being national groups running critical infrastructure,” Hatt concluded.

One bold prediction, made by the GSMAi’s head of economic analysis, Pau Castells, was that 2026 will see European mobile operators start growing again after several years of fairly flat revenues. “I am optimistic,” said Castells. “There are minuscule signs that ARPU [annual revenue per user] has been growing in several quarters in 2025, with some seeing growth between 5% and 10% – that is a lot when compared to the previous decade.”

To meet his bold prediction, however, Castells explained that several factors will need to be met, including changes to the regulatory agenda across Europe. “There are some big decisions that policymakers in Europe need to make, including [in the details of] the Digital Networks Act.”

The Act, which is currently under consultation, proposes to boost European competitiveness by overhauling rules around spectrum and cost-sharing with the provision of a single unified framework. “We also need reforms on merger guidelines,” Castells added, echoing his colleague Gupta. “This would address an important challenge European operators have been facing, which is how to scale sufficiently.”

- James Pearce, Contributing Editor, TelecomTV