6G looms large in latest Ericsson report

• The latest Ericsson Mobility Report includes 6G subscription forecasts for 2031
• Europe is still expected to lag behind China, India and the US with commercial 6G launches 
• 5G standalone launches reach 90

Ericsson’s latest iteration of its Mobility Report (EMR) has included estimates for expected deployments and take-up of 6G services for the first time as it widens its timeframe from 2025 through to 2031.

Yes folks, 6G is already becoming a thing, even though many of us are still unable to upgrade to a 5G standalone service: 5G SA has yet to be deployed in a number of markets, and even where it has been deployed it’s often not available on a nationwide basis.

According to the report, 5G SA has at least taken a big step forward in 2025. More than 90 mobile operators are now said to have launched or soft-launched 5G SA networks – an increase of about 30 operators from the same period last year and 20 from the June 2025 EMR.

Meanwhile, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 2.9 billion at the end of 2025, accounting for one-third of all mobile subscriptions. Globally, 5G is anticipated to overtake 4G as the dominant mobile access technology by subscription type by the end of 2027, nine years after launch, according to the vendor’s research team. 

By 2031, global 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 6.4 billion and will make up two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions: 5G SA subscriptions are projected to account for more than 4.1 billion by this point.

Drumroll for 6G

As for the next generation of mobile, work has already started on 6G standards (3GPP Release 21, based on ITU IMT-2030). The good news is that the standalone/non-standalone debate that continues to plague 5G will not be a thing with the next generation.  

The EMR notes that 6G is expected to have only a standalone architecture, with a core network built on the architectural principles of 5G SA, extended with new capabilities such as AI and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC). A new radio access network (RAN) architecture will be defined, including a new radio interface.

Speaking of radio access, squabbles about future spectrum resources have already started and mobile operators have been able to notch up a partial win ahead of WRC-27. The European Union’s Radio Spectrum Policy Group (RSPG) has recently issued an opinion on the future use of the upper 6 GHz band that favours future mobile network technologies, such as 6G, as opposed to unlicensed Wi-Fi services. 

The GSMA also predicts that 6G networks will require up to three times more mid-band spectrum than is typically available today to keep pace with surging demand for data, AI-powered services and advanced digital applications.

Meanwhile, the EMR is predicting that global 6G subscriptions will reach 180 million by the end of 2031, not including early uptake of AI-enabled IoT devices, such as autonomous vehicles, smart glasses and drones.

“If 6G subscription uptake happens earlier, the current forecast could be surpassed significantly,” the report authors add.

The timing of commercial launches will also vary between regions and countries, with the US, China, Japan, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and South Korea expected to be ahead of the pack, as they were with 5G. India is also expected to be an early starter with 6G (certainly much earlier in the cycle than it was for 5G). 

In Europe, on the other hand, commercial 6G launches are expected to be about one year later, relative to other countries, than was the case for 5G, owing to the later roll out of 5G SA.

Plus ça change…

Keep up to date with the latest 6G developments in TelecomTV’s dedicated channel, Defining 6G Networks. 

- Anne Morris, Contributing Editor, TelecomTV