London, United Kingdom - 20 Jan 2016

Though the government ID market struggled to achieve significant growth over the past few years due to ongoing project delays and cuts, ABI Research, the leader in technology market intelligence, forecasts 2016 to mark the market’s return to double-digit shipment growth. Spearheaded by two eID projects set to commence this year in Japan and Bangladesh, 2015 to 2016 year-on-year market growth is on target to hit 13%. In all, ABI Research’s 2020 worldwide shipment forecast now stands at 777 million units.

“It’s incredible to think about how two projects can have such a profound impact on the government ID market,” says Phil Sealy, Senior Analyst at ABI Research. “In addition to the projects in Japan and Bangladesh set to kick-start this year, eID card issuance in Nigeria, Ghana and Turkey are projected to have a similar growth effect between 2017 and 2020. Together, these projects should sustain the market’s double-digit year-on-year shipment growth through 2018.”

According to ABI Research’s report, growth remained at a minimum, in between one and three percent, over the past three years due to ongoing delays concerning a multitude of eID projects, most notably within Brazil, France and Russia. Additionally, projects that industry officials once touted as next-generation growth drivers look increasingly unlikely to kick off in the next five years. Although initially greeted with a great deal of hype, neither India’s smart national ID card nor the United States’ smart healthcare card managed to make significant development strides over the past three to four years.

“Although good levels of growth are forecast, the government ID market will remain one that is yet to fulfill its true potential,” continues Sealy. “Although shipment growth is forecast to return to pre-2013 double-digit levels, it does not detract from the fact that delays and project uncertainty continue to hold back and hamper overall market progress.”

In terms of card interface choice, contact-based credentials are set to account for half of all shipments in 2020. This is due to significant future contact-based national ID card deployments in Bangladesh and the Philippines, as well as a slowdown in overall e-Passport growth.

“Ultimately, we believe that the low growth experienced within the government ID market over the past three years was a transitional blip, one that will be overcome in 2016, in line with the increasing global security threat and need to improve economic efficiencies,” concludes Sealy. “The two up-and-coming projects in Japan and Bangladesh demonstrate how just two projects can significantly impact worldwide expectations, but also equally show how quickly a delay can dampen future market outcomes. While the overall market will continue to remain a rollercoaster, with many twists and turns to come over the next five years, all evidence suggests that, for the short-to-medium term, this market will be back on the rise.”

These findings are part of ABI Research’s Smart Card Technologies Service, which includes research reports, market data, insights and competitive assessments.