In the legacy era of mobile internet walled-garden offerings, service providers would select from a limited number of applications for their subscribing smartphone users. Looking forward, the emergence of diverse App Stores creates an open market of abundant content.
A new era has emerged. Smartphone users search for the best mobile apps, and select one based upon the apparent merits -- relative to both the user’s needs and the availability of alternative apps offered in the global marketplace.
Theoretically, independent app developer supply can now connect directly with the pent-up user demand. According to industry analysts, as smartphone adoption becomes increasingly more mainstream, the resulting widget and gadget app consumption trends will rapidly gain new momentum.
Mobile application stores will exceed 4.5 billion app downloads in 2010, eight out of ten of which will be (ad-supported or otherwise) free to end users of these apps – according to the latest market study by Gartner.
Gartner forecasts worldwide downloads in mobile application stores to surpass 21.6 billion by 2013. Free downloads will account for 82 percent of all downloads in 2010, and will account for 87 percent of downloads in 2013.
Last year, mobile phone ownership exceeded four billion users, which equates to nearly 60 percent of the world's population, according to the latest study by Futuresource Consulting. Although the total handset market began to decline in 2009, smartphone sales are rising fast, with Futuresource predicting that more than one billion people will own a smartphone by 2013.
According to the latest study by Informa, total mobile service revenues will exceed $1 trillion in 2013, despite a projected fall in voice call related revenues. Growth in service revenues will be driven by data related revenues -- rising to over $330 billion, up from an estimated $208 billion in 2008.
Prepare for the Inevitable Traffic Surge
What are the network traffic growth implications specifically for the mobile app adoption phenomenon? It’s too soon to tell, exactly. But, if other related mobile internet trends are any indication, then it will be yet one more driver that further accelerates the current upward growth trajectory.
As an example, here’s a sample of the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index related highlights:
- Global mobile data traffic increased 160% from calendar year-end 2008 to calendar year-end 2009.
- Global mobile data traffic is growing 2.4 times faster than global fixed broadband data traffic.
- Smartphones and mobile PC aircards will drive over 90% of global mobile traffic by 2014.
Learn more about the latest Cisco VNI detailed mobile sector forecast – Register now, for the upcoming “Supercharge the Mobile Internet” webcast on February 9th.
Meanwhile, you can discover how broadband wireless access impacts mobile multimedia application performance -- yes, there’s an app for that -- Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) for iPhone & BlackBerry Storm.
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