If operators avoid the dumb pipe will the vendors end up holding the dumb box?

Here's the worst-case scenario: that over-the-top players such as Apple and Google will continue to reap what appears to be the main rewards of the skyrocketing mobile data business, while the network operators sit by helplessly, watching money fly out of the door.

Rewind: in the desired scenario, operators muster the intelligence and capabilities built into their systems to unleash a world of network-enriched applications that device-centric applications can’t match. To compete with the end device vendors, in other words, they turn the network infrastructure itself into a platform on which independent apps developers can play too.

And now operators seem to have united around some common initiatives and business models that might allow the desired scenario to play out.

At its heart is the idea of exposing specific network assets in the form of APIs for use by partners such as enterprises, content companies, developers and others. To nail this opportunity we have the forthcoming OneAPI standard, which will offer a common set of APIs that developers can use to incorporate network capabilities into their apps, and the new Wholesale Applications Community, which while still an undeveloped organisation that needs to prove itself, will draw on OneAPI and other initiatives to give developers a single system for writing apps that can run on any device or network.

And while operators have embraced these initiatives to prevent losing their role to giant software firms, is it possible that traditional infrastructure providers could have a similar concern? Is it possible that by opening up the infrastructure the lucrative software business will be lost and they'll become dumb box providers?

Traditional infrastructure providers can play a huge role in this business. They are a logical source of help to operators - not only because they build the networks, but because many of the functions being exposed to developers are provided by the equipment the vendors provide. Their understanding of the network’s potential and its limitations and how to manage it are the key values they bring.