Highly amusing this morning to see the US government playing the "Chicken Licken" card and trying to panic at least its own citizens (and anyone else anywhere else that takes the cynical ploy at face value) through dire warnings that the network of global positioning satellites (GPS) that the world now so routinely relies on could "fail by 2010". This is more about political machinations, xenophobia, and jostlings for preferment and money than anything else writes an unconvinced Martyn Warwick.
The GPS system is 20 years old and, over that time, far, far too many organisations and individuals (including many millions of motorists) have become pathetically dependent on using it to navigate to their destinations. Could be time to get the maps out again, people.
For now, out of a clear blue sky (if you'll forgive the pun), the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has issued a scare-mongering report claiming that the constellation of satellites "could" (note the "could") "begin (note the "begin") to fail next year.
Concerned US citizens are already contacting government agencies and radio and TV stations to ask whether they are likely to be hit by debris as the birds drop out of the sky to wreak havoc in the Homeland.
These though are the facts of the matter. The GPS system is a jealously-guarded US-owned, military-biased, technological resource to which the rest of the world is allowed some limited access.
This access is permitted because the US government is worried that if some applications (such as vehicle navigation aids) are not made available globally other countries will band together to devise, fund and launch their own global GPS systems over which the US would have no control or sanction (other than to shoot them out of the sky in a time of "crisis" as has already been threatened).
So this really is about the loss of monopoly, control and face.
Responsibility for for the management and maintenance of the GPS system lies with the US Air Force and in its latest report Congress has suddenly discovered that the Air Force is "failing to keep the system up to date." despite spending US$1.3 billion a year on its upkeep
In a mish-mash of a critique that has the hallmarks of the previous US administration stamped all over it, the GAO says that whilst the Air Force has actually been overspending on GPS, "constant delays have put the entire system in danger of failure."
And just what is that danger? Well, I quote, 'It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption', says the GAO.
The report goes on to point out that although five replacement satellites were supposed to have been in orbit in late 2007, they won't be there until November this year and "it is unclear whether the satellites currently in orbit will be able to keep the system running smoothly in time for their replacements to arrive."
Err, yes they can and yes they will.
The not so subtle sub-text here is to foment worry and concern in the US public arena and to make the claim that any failure of a GPS satellite would bolster the case for alternative, non-US owned positioning satellites such as Europe's Galileo project.
This long-planned EU-funded system, the construction of which has been so resolutely opposed by successive US administrations, is due to be launched next year.
The US can't stop it ( and it's tried hard enough) but a good way to focus US public opinion against the system is to claim that the homegrown all-American GPS service will fail and put Americans at risk of falling under the thrall of a foreign system - and who knows what that might lead to? Being forced to learn French? Reading Goethe in the original? Morris dancing at gunpoint?
Many US web sites and media organisations have swallowed the bait, hook, line and sinker. Have a trawl around the web and see for yourselves.
Everywhere the line is that the impact on American life will be "significant" - not only terms of daily life in getting from A to B without going via X, Y and Z as well, but also in regard to national security and defence.
It is also being claimed that US military forces around the world could "suffer from the damage to their ability to map, track hostile targets, and gather intelligence." Really? What are all those dedicated military satellites doing then? Beaming down "American Idol to the troops?". I don't think so.
And then to add one more scare to the heaped pile, it is also being suggested that when the system goes down it will be impossible to track criminals wearing electronic tagging devices and that the result would be a crime wave of unimagined proportions with murder, rapes and robberies happening on every US main Street corner as the GPS satellites fail and crash to earth and the world ends. Or is it reactions to swine flu that will do that ? I think maybe I'm getting my portents of global disaster out of synch. Pig flu was last week, wasn't it?
One US news site though has this posting, "The failings of GPS could also play into the hands of other countries.'" You see, truth will out.
Unhappy about having to rely on the whims of the US armed forces for GPS data, and implicit threats that access could be turned-off unilaterally in a fit of political pique, several countries around the world, including Russia, India and China have begun work on the own positioning systems. However, the one that most worries and exercises the US is Europe's Galileo.
Designed as an EU-funded alternative to the US model, it's very existence has been causing trans-Atlantic tensions for years. That's because Galileo is a civilian system that allows all users access to it while the US model is a degraded civilian system in one bandwidth that can be witheld at any time whilst the highly-accurate M-band is reserved for the military. Fair enough, but the US wants that sort of access and control over other GPS systems belonging to other nations.
The frequency initially chosen for Galileo would have made it impossible for the US to block the constellation's signals without also interfering with their own GPS system and that caused all sorts of ructions, petulance and threats.
Some US officials have said that if they consider it necessary they will shoot down Galileo satellites whilst the EU maintains that Galileo is a neutral technology, available to all countries and everyone.
Under immense pressure from America, the EU later reluctantly agreed to change the proposed Galileo bandwidth to a different frequency that will allowed the blocking of signals if the American authorities deem it necessary. So much for independence.
But anyway, the US GPS system won't go down, it's just too important. But a few engineered glitches, the occasional blackout and the subsequent panic when American drivers can't find their way to the shopping mall will keep minds focused and the money rolling in.
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